A major games industry analysis firm has lowered its Switch 2 sales forecast, but still thinks it’ll be the fastest selling console ever despite this.
DFC Intelligence, which has been covering the games and digital media industry since 1994, has published its updated insights on the Switch 2‘s launch.
The firm had previously forecast that Nintendo would sell 17 million Switch 2 consoles by the end of 2025, but it has now revised this down to 15 million consoles due to concerns over pricing in the wake of US president Donald Trump’s wave of tariffs.
While Nintendo has said Trump’s tariffs had no impact on the $449 price point it set for Switch 2, the fact the company has delayed Switch 2 pre-orders in the US because it wants “to assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions” means a price increase in the US hasn’t been ruled out.
“With tariffs and uncertain pricing Nintendo may choose to scale back its manufacturing,” DFC Intelligence said. “If prices increase substantially due to tariffs, a significant portion of prospective buyers are likely to hold back on a purchase until prices come down. This situation is changing and will be closely monitored as DFC regularly updates its forecast throughout the year.”
Despite its decision to revise its forecast down from 17 million sales by the end of 2025 to 15 million sales, DFC says it still believes Switch will be the fastest selling console ever, given that the original Switch, PS4 and Wii took at least a year to hit 15 million sales. It also believes the sky’s the limit when it comes to lifetime sales for the console.
“Long term, the upper limit for hardware sales for the Switch 2 is enormous,” it said. “The Switch 2 continues an established system and the ability to act as a portable device taps into Nintendo’s rich history of offering portable/console experiences. In terms of overall hardware unit sales, Nintendo had its peak in 2007-2009 when the Wii and DS were available and would regularly sell a combined 40 to 50 million units a year. As the Switch 2 matures it has the ability to capture an even larger share than the original Switch.”
Pre-orders for Nintendo’s new console went live in Europe and the UK last week, following its Nintendo Direct presentation. Nintendo has said, however, that it won’t open pre-orders to customers in the US yet due to the country’s turbulent financial situation.
Last week Trump introduced a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, with countries like China and Japan – which he calls “the worst offenders” – getting larger tariffs of 54% and 24%, respectively.
A report from the Financial Times last month suggested that Nintendo had already been shifting production away from China since Trump’s first administration stated its intent to upend global trading, noting that more than half of the hardware Nintendo imports into the US comes from Vietnam and Cambodia.
However, the tariffs imposed by Trump last – which he says will go into effect on Wednesday – include a 46% tariff on Vietnam and a 49% tariff on Cambodia. According to FT sources, hundreds of thousands of Switch 2 consoles have already been sent from Vietnam to Nintendo’s US facilities since the start of the year, perhaps in anticipation of such a move.
